With three weeks to go, the May local elections will test Labour’s mettle

Much has been made of the upcoming test of Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership just over a year into the job with the Hartlepool by-election taking place on 6 May. By-elections always receive plenty of media attention, and of course it will be a barometer of how Labour are faring in the public’s eyes and if the recent bounce in the polls for the Conservatives will come true. However, the by-election is not where the whole story lies. The upcoming local council, devolved and regional mayoral elections will prove far more revealing in terms of how The Labour Party is truly doing to convince the electorate they’re under new management and worthy of winning elections. 

Over the last year, as the nation has sought to deal with the pandemic, and as we now look towards a recovery, Labour’s regional mayors, council leaders and councillors have had to step up to the challenge like never before. More so than ever, people have been present in their communities and so much of the response to the pandemic has been delivered at a local level. Throughout this time, Council’s communication strategies have been instrumental in managing their response, and now during the election, how candidates communicate with their electorate will also be key to their success. 

The pandemic has hit local authorities hard. Whilst so much attention is placed on what’s happening in Westminster and its hallowed halls, it would be remiss to overlook the huge contribution that Labour Councils have made. They are often the bedrock and lifeblood of the Labour movement, enacting on and implementing Labour values every day. 

Of course, the national political picture always impacts locally too, and it will be instructive to see if Council Leaders have achieved cut through or if it’s the national leadership which will be most influential in how people vote. The last local elections in 2019 saw Labour lose councils and councillors, despite the unpopularity of the then Prime Minister, Theresa May. Now, with two new Party Leaders in place and elections taking place right across the country, this will be the true test of their leadership and give a clearer picture of general election prospects. 

During the pandemic, we have also seen the hugely influential role that regional mayors have played. They have been the spokespeople of their region, often visionary, bold, at times brave and they’ve been effective at lobbying government. Who can forget Andy Burnham’s ‘impromptu’ press conferences on the streets of Manchester, surrounded by local Labour Council Leaders as he berated the Government for their lack of support for their region? It seems the voters of Greater Manchester have not, as he looks to return a substantial majority. He put up an effective fight and communicated this well, and looks as if he will be rewarded for it. Sadiq Khan took a similar approach, quick to criticise the Government and to communicate that he was on the Londoners’ side. 

This approach of course contrasts compared to Sir Keir’s initial response to the pandemic, which refrained from hostile criticism of the Government and at times almost felt like a respectful questioning. With the Conservatives now seeing a boost to their ratings, largely attributed to the success of the vaccine roll-out and unlocking of restrictions, it will make many reflect on whether Sir Keir should have adopted a different approach last year and been more critical of the Government’s handling of the pandemic. The Mayoral election results could be revealing, and it will be interesting to see if Sir Keir changes tact in response. 

Whilst the elections may seem like a walk in the park for incumbent Labour Mayors, where Labour are the challenger it looks set to be a far more close-run contest. The value of being a Mayor with a Government matching your colours behind you cannot be underestimated. Ben Houchen is perhaps the best example of this, he has been able to lobby and extract from Government a host of commitments for his region which are front and centre of his campaign – from bringing Teesside Airport into public ownership, the successful bid for Teesside Freeport and HMT’s recently announced move to Darlington. Houchen can communicate his proven track record of delivery to voters, and the Government can say they’ve put their money where their mouth is and have fulfilled their levelling up agenda. Labour Mayors must surely be looking on enviously. 

The upcoming local and Mayoral elections will also shine a light on the fragility of the so-called Red Wall and entrenchment of the deepening North/South divide and polarisation of politics. It will be the first true test for the Government’s “levelling up” narrative since promising so much to the electorate in 2019. 

There are various factors at play in this election due to the pandemic which make the result hard to call for certain. How will voter turnout be affected - will apathy and fear keep people at home? What impact will a reduction in campaigning have? One of Labour’s greatest assets is its activists and winning the ground war, and with campaigning significantly scaled back this will surely have an impact. Indeed, an important question will also be, are Labour activists feeling energised to hit the streets to campaign for Sir Keir? The issues affecting this election will also be extremely pertinent, instead of litter and potholes, which usually characterise local elections, lockdown, vaccines and the Government’s response will infiltrate the election narrative. 

So, whilst all eyes may be on the results of the Hartlepool by-election, the results of the local and regional elections will provide a far more revealing analysis of how Labour is truly faring in the eyes of the public. As the results filter through, and post-election dissection begins, there will surely be lessons to be learned about how Labour communicates across the country to the electorate and campaigns in the future. 

Abigail Jones
Grayling