A New Chapter for Keir Starmer?

Keir’s first big wobble

A New Chapter for Britain was hyped as the launch of “an ambitious policy agenda”, and a riposte to internal detractors who demand more inspiration and vision. Since Keir Starmer’s victory last year, he has won plaudits for regaining public trust in the Labour Party - with personal ratings better than any Labour leader for a decade. But critics say he should be doing better. Parts of the party and previously friendly media see him stuck in the mud.

His speech should be seen in that context, and in particular in the three different audiences he had to address - leading to some conflicting messages and aims. For voters, Starmer simply had to remind them he was there and that Labour is changing. His team will be happy with the subsequent headlines puffing up his overtures to business. For the commentariat, Starmer had to show that he could set out his stall for a broader vision of a post-COVID society, while he hoped to address the criticisms from some quarters that he is unambitious and meek.

This speech was never going to silence the Labour leader’s critics on the left of the party, who feel (with some justification) that the tone and focus of his leadership is not as previously advertised. But his team will likely feel that a number of key boxes were ticked. Firstly, they moved on the narrative and slowed the ‘death by a thousand cuts’ briefing against him. Starmer’s updated policy agenda gave his supporters something to cheer about, and his narrative on the politics of belonging is beginning to take shape.

Policy-lite, but that’s alright

Importantly, the speech marked the end of the listening phase and the start of the listening and talking phase of Starmer’s leadership. 

With over three years until the next general election, Starmer and his team have learned the lessons of Ed Miliband’s tenure. Policy announced now is the answer to yesterday’s question when polling day arrives in 2024. A detailed policy platform launched now, in a period of unprecedented economic reconfiguration, would be a gift to Conservative Campaign Headquarters. It would also deprive Starmer of the opportunity to generate excitement around new policies in the lead-up to the election campaign - the time when voters pay most attention to the Leader of the Opposition.

Some short-term policy announcements aside, Starmer sensibly focused on the broad brush strokes of his vision: a responsible economic approach; a thriving private sector, supported by Labour; properly-funded public services; and reduced inequality. His themes spoke to an eclectic coalition inside and outside the party. From those attracted by the Greens, former Lib Dems, ‘Red Wall’ residents and businesses, there was something here for everyone.

We got a first glimpse of Labour’s 2024 attack narrative

Starmer’s speech was arguably most interesting for its echoes of Tory attacks on New Labour post-financial crisis.

While David Cameron and George Osborne claimed a crash was the inevitable result of ‘high spending’, Starmer framed the UK’s COVID suffering as the “inevitable consequences of a decade of decisions” led by Conservative free market policy.

There is clearly an opportunity for Starmer to exploit here. Today’s Tories are looking to disown austerity through ‘Levelling up’. But the public isn't sold yet. Recent polling shows that only one in three Red Wall voters is confident ‘Levelling up’ will materialise. Moreover Rishi Sunak, a true blue fiscal hawk, is likely to cut spending from late 2021/early 2022.

The prospect of austerity 2.0, and a failure to deliver on manifesto promises, could render Starmer’s line of attack highly persuasive when election time comes.

The real work (for Starmer’s comms team) starts here

Successful would-be Prime Ministers can articulate their mission in a word or phrase: “Get Brexit done” for Johnson, a “long-term economic plan” for Cameron, “modernisation” for Blair. Starmer has three years to distil his vision for Britain into a mission statement and tell voters how we get there. This speech began to set the foundations.

He spoke the politics of belonging, family and growth. He argued that young people shouldn’t have to “leave their hometown to have a chance of getting a good job”. If the aim is to win back Red Wall voters, these are the right challenges to articulate. But Starmer’s team must bring the answers to life too, through a confident narrative supported by directional, sharp messaging.

We didn’t hear much of that in A New Chapter for Britain, beyond commitments to the principle of investment in science, skills, technology and British manufacturing. A video broadcast from Southside was never going to be the platform to articulate that vision in full. However there were threads that can be woven together into a clear, forward-facing narrative. The work begins here, and there isn’t a moment to lose.

Hugh McDaid, Richard Brooks and Joe Riley
Portland Communications